Closing spread
NE -7
Total
52.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.025
- 44.0%Success rate44.0%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.32CPOE-1.12
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.25Points / drive2.02
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NYG are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/42 | 334 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 10 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/44 | 361 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 12 | 104 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 6 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.03