2015 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

27·26

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

52.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapGiants
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.025
  • 44.0%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.32CPOE-1.12
  • 41.0%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.02
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NYG are 7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NYG @ NE15–33NE
2023 · W12NE @ NYG7–10NYG
2019 · W6NYG @ NE14–35NE
2011 · playoffsNYG @ NE21–17NYG
2011 · W9NYG @ NE24–20NYG
2007 · playoffsNYG @ NE17–14NYG
2007 · W17NE @ NYG38–35NE
2003 · W6NYG @ NE6–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYG
NEQ1 15:001478Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 6:40291Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 5:4933Punt7–7
NYGQ1 4:5239Punt7–7
NEQ1 3:22957Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 12:541064Turnover10–7
NEQ2 8:5247Punt10–7
NYGQ2 6:59835Field goal10–10
NEQ2 3:42628Punt10–10
NYGQ2 1:09774Touchdown10–17
NEQ2 0:1300End of half10–17
NYGQ3 15:001239Field goal10–20
NEQ3 9:3231Punt10–20
NYGQ3 7:5633Punt10–20
NEQ3 6:0944Touchdown17–20
NYGQ3 4:46932Field goal17–23
NEQ3 0:49418Turnover17–23
NYGQ4 14:514-11Punt17–23
NEQ4 12:58386Touchdown24–23
NYGQ4 11:3330Punt24–23
NEQ4 11:051081Turnover24–23
NYGQ4 6:011486Field goal24–26
NEQ4 1:471044Field goal27–26
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half27–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/4233421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount19663.51
Tom Brady294.50
James White155.00
Brandon Bolden1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski571131
Danny Amendola1011790
Brandon LaFell26660
Julian Edelman45530
LeGarrette Blount22110
James White1160
Aaron Dobson1450
Scott Chandler1311
Brandon Bolden0100
Michael Williams0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/4436120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings11393.50
Orleans Darkwa5153.00
Shane Vereen4143.50
Eli Manning11010.00
Andre Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.4121041
Dwayne Harris69821
Will Tye57560
Rueben Randle34510
Myles White13280
Jerome Cunningham12160
Rashad Jennings23120
Shane Vereen24120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.03