2011 · SB

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

21·17

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

53

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.193
  • 44.0%Success rate51.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.301
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.019
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.53CPOE+3.92
  • 38.3%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NYG @ NE15–33NE
2023 · W12NE @ NYG7–10NYG
2019 · W6NYG @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W10NE @ NYG27–26NE
2011 · W9NYG @ NE24–20NYG
2007 · playoffsNYG @ NE17–14NYG
2007 · W17NE @ NYG38–35NE
2003 · W6NYG @ NE6–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NE
NYGQ1 15:001035Punt2–0
NEQ1 9:0010Safety2–0
NYGQ1 8:521073Touchdown9–0
NEQ1 3:24960Field goal9–3
NYGQ2 13:48844Punt9–3
NEQ2 10:0039Punt9–3
NYGQ2 8:24831Punt9–3
NEQ2 4:0315108Touchdown9–10
NYGQ2 0:0800End of half9–10
NEQ3 15:00879Touchdown9–17
NYGQ3 11:20945Field goal12–17
NEQ3 6:433-2Punt12–17
NYGQ3 5:36832Field goal15–17
NEQ3 0:35523Turnover15–17
NYGQ4 14:171149Punt15–17
NEQ4 9:241148Punt15–17
NYGQ4 3:46988Touchdown21–17
NEQ4 0:57824End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning30/4029610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw17724.21
Brandon Jacobs9374.10
D.J. Ware166.00
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks10131090
Mario Manningham59730
Bear Pascoe44330
Victor Cruz44251
Ahmad Bradshaw23190
Jake Ballard23100
D.J. Ware1180
Brandon Jacobs0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/4127621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis10444.40
Wes Welker22110.50
Danny Woodhead7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Hernandez814671
Wes Welker78600
Deion Branch36450
Danny Woodhead44421
Rob Gronkowski23260
Chad Johnson11210
BenJarvus Green-Ellis23150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.30