Closing spread
NE -3
Total
53
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.050EPA / play+0.193
- 44.0%Success rate51.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.143EPA / rush+0.019
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.53CPOE+3.92
- 38.3%Third-down rate46.4%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.84Points / drive2.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 30/40 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 10 | 13 | 109 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/41 | 276 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 8 | 14 | 67 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.81
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.30