Closing spread
NE -12.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.256
- 44.2%Success rate53.7%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.422
- -0.008EPA / rush+0.001
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- -5.32CPOE+7.39
- 41.9%Third-down rate48.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 1.67Points / drive3.13
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 63 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:01 | 13 | 40 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 14:57 | 6 | 51 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 9:51 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 8:35 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 6:45 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 1:47 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:10 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q3 6:43 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q3 3:04 | 8 | 55 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q4 14:52 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| NE | Q4 11:05 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q4 9:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NE | Q4 7:54 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NYG | Q4 2:42 | 12 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NE | Q4 0:35 | 4 | -10 | Turnover on downs | 17–14 |
| NYG | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/34 | 255 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/48 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.71