Closing spread
NE -13
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play-0.038
- 53.7%Success rate44.2%
- +0.422EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.008
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- +7.39CPOE-5.32
- 48.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 3.13Points / drive1.67
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NYG are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 10:59 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q1 5:19 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:36 | 9 | 45 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| NYG | Q2 14:55 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NE | Q2 14:44 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| NYG | Q2 9:59 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 13–14 |
| NE | Q2 7:40 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| NYG | Q2 1:59 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| NE | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–21 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–21 |
| NYG | Q3 13:22 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| NE | Q3 9:12 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–28 |
| NYG | Q3 4:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 23–28 |
| NE | Q3 0:30 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 23–28 |
| NYG | Q4 12:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 23–28 |
| NE | Q4 11:29 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| NYG | Q4 11:06 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 31–28 |
| NE | Q4 9:53 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 38–28 |
| NYG | Q4 4:36 | 11 | 51 | Touchdown | 38–35 |
| NE | Q4 1:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/42 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 19 | 46 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/32 | 251 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.59