2011 · Week 9

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

24·20

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.050EPA / play+0.193
  • 44.0%Success rate51.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.301
  • -0.143EPA / rush+0.019
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.53CPOE+3.92
  • 38.3%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NYG @ NE15–33NE
2023 · W12NE @ NYG7–10NYG
2019 · W6NYG @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W10NE @ NYG27–26NE
2011 · playoffsNYG @ NE21–17NYG
2007 · playoffsNYG @ NE17–14NYG
2007 · W17NE @ NYG38–35NE
2003 · W6NYG @ NE6–17NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–NE
NYGQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:23427Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:53732Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:1238Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:2035Punt0–0
NEQ1 3:49854Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 14:52615Punt0–0
NEQ2 13:02512Punt0–0
NYGQ2 10:53938Punt0–0
NEQ2 6:2834Punt0–0
NYGQ2 4:4536Punt0–0
NEQ2 3:201183Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ2 0:0300End of half0–0
NEQ3 15:00322Turnover0–0
NYGQ3 13:38657Field goal3–0
NEQ3 10:093-1Turnover9–0
NYGQ3 9:15110Touchdown10–0
NEQ3 9:1040Punt10–0
NEQ3 8:19619Field goal10–3
NYGQ3 5:2935Punt10–3
NYGQ3 3:54540Turnover10–3
NEQ3 2:09780Touchdown10–10
NYGQ4 14:28622Punt10–10
NEQ4 11:03858Field goal10–13
NYGQ4 7:08950Touchdown17–13
NEQ4 3:03964Touchdown17–20
NYGQ4 1:36960Touchdown24–20
NEQ4 0:1528End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3925021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs18724.01
D.J. Ware7233.30
Eli Manning3113.70
Da'Rel Scott155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz611910
Jake Ballard47671
Mario Manningham37331
Brandon Jacobs45280
Ramses Barden25240
Bear Pascoe1170
Michael Clayton0100
D.J. Ware0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4934222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis12524.30
Danny Woodhead7263.70
Wes Welker11313.00
Stevan Ridley3103.30
Tom Brady155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker9101360
Rob Gronkowski8151011
Aaron Hernandez45351
Danny Woodhead36340
Deion Branch25210
BenJarvus Green-Ellis11110
Julian Edelman0120
Stevan Ridley1120
Chad Johnson0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.30