Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
38
Model margin
+1.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.063
- 39.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.048
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.4%
- 33.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.40Points / drive1.27
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/29 | 265 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 29 | 98 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Fabien Bownes | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Dawkins | 5 | 7 | 105 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 6 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tomczak | 14/27 | 159 | 1 | 2 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7/14 | 61 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mike Tomczak | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Edwards | 6 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 5 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Blackwell | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81