1999 · Week 3

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

29·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 61°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

38

Model margin

+1.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSteelers
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.063
  • 39.0%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.048
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 33.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.27
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PIT
PITQ1 15:0030Opp touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 13:5200Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ1 13:5239Opp touchdown14–0
SEAQ1 11:4000Opp touchdown14–0
PITQ1 11:40422Punt14–0
SEAQ1 8:44460Field goal17–0
PITQ1 6:53722Punt17–0
SEAQ1 2:35746Punt17–0
PITQ2 14:1133Punt17–0
SEAQ2 12:04622Field goal20–0
PITQ2 9:5333Punt20–0
SEAQ2 8:08834Field goal23–0
PITQ2 3:1421Turnover23–0
SEAQ2 2:151-14Turnover23–0
PITQ2 2:07319Turnover23–0
SEAQ2 1:27668Field goal26–0
PITQ2 0:0100End of half26–0
SEAQ3 15:00936Punt26–0
PITQ3 10:03827Turnover on downs26–0
SEAQ3 6:40641Missed field goal26–0
PITQ3 3:29766Turnover26–0
SEAQ3 0:5967Punt26–0
PITQ4 12:4940Field goal26–3
SEAQ4 12:0336Punt26–3
PITQ4 10:59742Turnover on downs26–3
SEAQ4 9:07628Field goal29–3
PITQ4 4:24942Turnover29–3
SEAQ4 1:541-1Turnover29–9
PITQ4 1:40116Touchdown29–10
SEAQ4 1:3529End of half29–10

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna18/2926500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters29983.40
Jon Kitna3-3-1.00
Fabien Bownes1-14-14.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Dawkins571050
Mike Pritchard610900
Christian Fauria22300
Derrick Mayes35280
Ricky Watters23120

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Tomczak14/2715912
Kordell Stewart7/146103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis11393.50
Richard Huntley5193.80
Mike Tomczak144.00
Kordell Stewart231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Edwards611721
Courtney Hawkins59630
Richard Huntley22300
Mark Bruener35250
Hines Ward25180
Jerome Bettis2290
Amos Zereoue1130
Will Blackwell0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.81