Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.032
- 42.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.21CPOE+1.54
- 37.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 1.54Points / drive2.00
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. SEA are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 18/24 | 274 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Mason Rudolph | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 7 | 9 | 131 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/33 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 106 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.77
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.65