2023 · Week 17

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

30·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.032
  • 42.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.21CPOE+1.54
  • 37.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.00
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. SEA are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–SEA
PITQ1 15:00834Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 11:2539Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:441585Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 1:47775Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 13:50554Field goal10–7
SEAQ2 10:27885Touchdown10–14
PITQ2 5:30975Touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 1:3639Punt17–14
PITQ2 0:3629End of half17–14
SEAQ3 15:00851Field goal17–17
PITQ3 10:47676Touchdown24–17
SEAQ3 6:57313Punt24–17
PITQ3 4:35519Punt24–17
SEAQ3 1:10662Field goal24–20
PITQ4 13:301265Field goal27–20
SEAQ4 7:071-9Turnover27–20
PITQ4 7:00513Field goal30–20
SEAQ4 4:311074Field goal30–23
PITQ4 2:01439End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph18/2427400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris271224.52
Jaylen Warren13755.81
Mason Rudolph650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens791310
Diontae Johnson44760
Pat Freiermuth34440
Jaylen Warren44230

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3329010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III10535.31
Geno Smith33311.00
Zach Charbonnet221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf581060
Noah Fant56590
Zach Charbonnet55390
Colby Parkinson23380
Kenneth Walker III33220
Jaxon Smith-Njigba12121
Tyler Lockett15100
Jake Bobo1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.77
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.65