Closing spread
PIT -13.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.054
- 38.9%Success rate44.9%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.03CPOE+3.03
- 33.6%Third-down rate45.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 20/29 | 159 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Obomanu | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Eddie Williams | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/30 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 9 | 126 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51