2011 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

0·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -13.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSteelers
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.054
  • 38.9%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.03CPOE+3.03
  • 33.6%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.78
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PIT
PITQ1 15:00942Turnover on downs0–0
SEAQ1 10:0632Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:19960Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 3:28626Punt0–7
PITQ1 0:21653Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 12:41733Punt0–14
PITQ2 9:351379Field goal0–17
SEAQ2 1:52420End of half0–17
SEAQ3 15:0035Punt0–17
PITQ3 13:3331Punt0–17
SEAQ3 12:01610Punt0–17
PITQ3 9:171086Touchdown0–24
SEAQ3 3:3039Punt0–24
PITQ3 2:42861Missed field goal0–24
SEAQ4 14:0737Punt0–24
PITQ4 12:4435Punt0–24
SEAQ4 11:07934Turnover on downs0–24
PITQ4 8:2134Punt0–24
SEAQ4 6:44518Punt0–24
PITQ4 4:28532End of half0–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson20/2915900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarvaris Jackson3124.00
Marshawn Lynch6111.80
Justin Forsett3103.30
Leon Washington1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Obomanu46350
Kris Durham33300
Justin Forsett33200
Eddie Williams11170
Zach Miller12130
Golden Tate22120
Mike Williams1390
Leon Washington1190
Anthony McCoy2390
Doug Baldwin1240
Marshawn Lynch1210

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3029810
Emmanuel Sanders1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall19663.51
Isaac Redman10494.91
Ben Roethlisberger581.60
Antonio Brown111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace891261
Antonio Brown46670
Emmanuel Sanders23440
Hines Ward46330
Heath Miller13160
Rashard Mendenhall22120
Mewelde Moore1190
Isaac Redman1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.51