Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.057
- 49.3%Success rate43.9%
- +0.205EPA / dropback+0.202
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 40.1%Third-down rate35.7%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.39Points / drive1.99
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/49 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/21 | 123 | 0 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92