Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.057
- 49.3%Success rate43.9%
- +0.205EPA / dropback+0.202
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 40.1%Third-down rate35.7%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.39Points / drive1.99
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.084
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:09 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:39 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:01 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:44 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 12:13 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 10:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 8:15 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 1:55 | 6 | 37 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q3 14:38 | 7 | 39 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| PIT | Q3 11:40 | 8 | 53 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q3 7:38 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q3 6:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 4:38 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q3 3:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 2:41 | 14 | 81 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| PIT | Q4 10:46 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 8:56 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 6:15 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 1:51 | 9 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/49 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9/21 | 123 | 0 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92