2025 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

31·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSteelers
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.027
  • 46.6%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.001
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.54CPOE+0.58
  • 40.9%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PIT
SEAQ1 15:00865Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 10:291041Field goal7–3
SEAQ1 4:4710Turnover7–3
PITQ1 4:33514Field goal7–6
SEAQ1 2:131158Missed field goal7–6
PITQ2 12:053-2Punt7–6
SEAQ2 10:35521Punt7–6
PITQ2 7:0331Punt7–6
SEAQ2 6:13523Turnover7–6
PITQ2 3:29621Touchdown7–14
SEAQ2 1:09421Punt7–14
PITQ2 0:201-6End of half7–14
PITQ3 15:00619Punt7–14
SEAQ3 11:11980Touchdown14–14
PITQ3 6:10466Turnover14–14
SEAQ3 4:1230Punt14–14
PITQ3 3:0939Punt14–14
SEAQ3 1:33955Field goal23–14
PITQ4 12:4600Opp touchdown24–14
SEAQ4 12:4600Opp touchdown24–14
PITQ4 12:46845Field goal24–17
SEAQ4 7:49773Touchdown31–17
PITQ4 3:41934Turnover31–17
SEAQ4 1:063-1Punt31–17
PITQ4 0:46325End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold22/3329522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III131058.11
Zach Charbonnet15100.70
AJ Barner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba8101030
Cooper Kupp79900
Tory Horton24321
Elijah Arroyo23310
AJ Barner23261
Kenneth Walker III11130

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3320312
Mason Rudolph2/21200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren14483.40
Kenny Gainwell5204.00
Aaron Rodgers133.00
Kaleb Johnson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Warren44860
Pat Freiermuth34310
Jonnu Smith44270
Calvin Austin III14220
DK Metcalf36201
Kenny Gainwell35160
Roman Wilson1270
Darnell Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.51