Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.027
- 46.6%Success rate44.1%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.001
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.54CPOE+0.58
- 40.9%Third-down rate40.4%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.22Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/33 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 13 | 105 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 15 | 10 | 0.7 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Tory Horton | 2 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/33 | 203 | 1 | 2 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2/2 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.51