2007 · Week 5

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

0·21

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 80°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

41

Model margin

+0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSteelers
  • +0.006EPA / play+0.055
  • 45.1%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.107EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.40CPOE+5.79
  • 35.7%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.10
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck13/2711601
Seneca Wallace1/3600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander11252.30
Seneca Wallace11111.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/2220610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker281023.60
Najeh Davenport7588.32
Carey Davis210.50
Ben Roethlisberger111.00
Charlie Batch2-1-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81