Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.055
- 45.1%Success rate41.8%
- +0.107EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.40CPOE+5.79
- 35.7%Third-down rate47.9%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.77Points / drive2.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:12 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:29 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:10 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 1:54 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 13:37 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 6:45 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 54 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 18 | 110 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q3 4:43 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q3 3:12 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q4 10:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PIT | Q4 9:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q4 7:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PIT | Q4 5:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–21 |
| SEA | Q4 3:07 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PIT | Q4 1:50 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 0–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/27 | 116 | 0 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/22 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 28 | 102 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Carey Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81