2021 · Week 6

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

20·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

-0.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSteelers
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.051
  • 43.8%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.037
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.078
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +4.08CPOE-2.66
  • 37.3%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.65
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PIT
PITQ1 15:00313Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:1938Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:14518Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:04751Punt0–0
PITQ1 4:55725Punt0–0
SEAQ1 0:3539Punt0–0
PITQ2 14:11854Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 10:0146Punt0–7
PITQ2 8:031564Touchdown0–14
SEAQ2 1:043-8Punt0–14
PITQ2 0:3633Punt0–14
SEAQ2 0:1100End of half0–14
SEAQ3 15:001072Touchdown7–14
PITQ3 9:55976Field goal7–17
SEAQ3 5:46660Touchdown14–17
PITQ3 3:0233Punt14–17
SEAQ3 1:25736Field goal17–17
PITQ4 12:59318Turnover17–17
SEAQ4 11:3246Punt17–17
PITQ4 9:45515Punt17–17
SEAQ4 7:2935Punt17–17
PITQ4 5:19950Field goal17–20
SEAQ4 1:30750Field goal20–20
SEAOT515Punt20–20
PITOT39Punt20–20
SEAOT10Turnover20–20
PITOT1-3Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3220910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins201015.01
Travis Homer22713.50
DeeJay Dallas4174.30
Geno Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf67580
Gerald Everett23400
Tyler Lockett27350
DeeJay Dallas55330
Travis Homer11270
Penny Hart11120
Will Dissly2281
Phillip Dorsett1130
Alex Collins11-30
Freddie Swain23-40

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4022910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris24813.40
Diontae Johnson12525.00
Kalen Ballage2157.50
Eric Ebron111.01
Ben Roethlisberger2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson913710
Pat Freiermuth77580
Najee Harris67461
Ray-Ray McCloud22180
Chase Claypool27170
Eric Ebron22100
James Washington1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.19
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.03