Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
-0.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.051
- 43.8%Success rate40.2%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.037
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- +4.08CPOE-2.66
- 37.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.12Points / drive1.65
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/32 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 20 | 101 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/40 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 13 | 71 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| James Washington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.19
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.03