2015 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

30·39

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.105
  • 45.8%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +4.85CPOE+7.64
  • 39.0%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.18
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. SEA are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2019 · W2SEA @ PIT28–26SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–SEA
PITQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:15630Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:121158Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 5:32518Punt3–0
PITQ1 3:251060Turnover3–0
SEAQ2 14:45639Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 12:18844Touchdown10–7
SEAQ2 8:391191Touchdown10–14
PITQ2 2:10880Touchdown18–14
SEAQ2 0:56314Punt18–14
PITQ2 0:0300End of half18–14
SEAQ3 15:0035Punt18–14
PITQ3 12:491083Field goal21–14
SEAQ3 5:5138Punt21–14
PITQ3 4:2027Turnover21–14
SEAQ3 3:36237Touchdown21–20
PITQ3 3:00530Punt21–20
SEAQ3 0:0935Punt21–20
PITQ4 14:1810Turnover21–20
SEAQ4 14:05524Touchdown21–26
PITQ4 12:17380Touchdown27–26
SEAQ4 11:40673Touchdown27–32
PITQ4 8:121456Field goal30–32
SEAQ4 3:00383Touchdown30–39
PITQ4 2:01334Turnover30–39
SEAQ4 1:37310End of half30–39

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger36/5545612
Landry Jones1/43402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams8293.61
Ben Roethlisberger5183.60
Martavis Bryant11111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Markus Wheaton9132011
DeAngelo Williams77880
Martavis Bryant513690
Antonio Brown612510
Heath Miller56450
Will Johnson22160
Jesse James1280
Matt Spaeth1160

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3034550

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls21813.91
Russell Wilson4143.50
Fred Jackson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin681453
Jimmy Graham48750
Jermaine Kearse45472
Tyler Lockett33380
Kevin Smith11210
Luke Willson11120
Fred Jackson2270
Thomas Rawls0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.82