Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.105
- 45.8%Success rate47.1%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.9%
- +4.85CPOE+7.64
- 39.0%Third-down rate47.8%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.08Points / drive2.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. SEA are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 36/55 | 456 | 1 | 2 |
| Landry Jones | 1/4 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Wheaton | 9 | 13 | 201 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 5 | 13 | 69 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 12 | 51 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/30 | 345 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 8 | 145 | 3 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 5 | 47 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.82