Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
47
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play-0.136
- 45.5%Success rate38.5%
- +0.119EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.257
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +7.05CPOE-1.51
- 39.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.86Points / drive1.35
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 5–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 29/35 | 300 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 10 | 12 | 79 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Malik Turner | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 5 | 5 | 50 | 2 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 12/19 | 112 | 2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 8/15 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 7 | 7 | 38 | 2 |
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.63
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.42