2019 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

28·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

47

Model margin

+2.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapSteelers
  • +0.018EPA / play-0.136
  • 45.5%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.257
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +7.05CPOE-1.51
  • 39.1%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.35
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 5–5 since 1999

Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SEA @ PIT31–17SEA
2023 · W17PIT @ SEA30–23PIT
2021 · W6SEA @ PIT20–23PIT
2015 · W12PIT @ SEA30–39SEA
2011 · W2SEA @ PIT0–24PIT
2007 · W5SEA @ PIT0–21PIT
2005 · playoffsSEA @ PIT10–21PIT
2003 · W9PIT @ SEA16–23SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:58410Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:4337Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:53840Punt0–0
PITQ1 5:00739Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:24317Turnover0–0
PITQ1 0:1141Touchdown0–7
SEAQ2 14:441261Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 8:4034Punt7–7
SEAQ2 7:1234Punt7–7
PITQ2 5:54854Field goal7–10
SEAQ2 2:281069Missed field goal7–10
SEAQ3 15:0036Punt7–10
PITQ3 13:2332Turnover7–10
SEAQ3 12:35640Touchdown14–10
PITQ3 9:49660Field goal14–13
SEAQ3 6:21775Touchdown21–13
PITQ3 2:561275Touchdown21–19
SEAQ4 11:16852Touchdown28–19
PITQ4 7:15518Punt28–19
SEAQ4 5:4910Turnover28–25
PITQ4 5:3713Touchdown28–26
SEAQ4 5:34215End of half28–26
SEAQ4 4:10839End of half28–26

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson29/3530030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny10626.21
Chris Carson15604.00
Russell Wilson6223.70
C.J. Prosise273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett1012790
DK Metcalf37611
Malik Turner33540
Will Dissly55502
Chris Carson33270
C.J. Prosise33130
Nick Vannett11130
Rashaad Penny1130

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph12/1911221
Ben Roethlisberger8/157500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner11333.01
Benny Snell12323.00
Jaylen Samuels3186.00
Mason Rudolph177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster58840
Vance McDonald77382
James Washington23230
Diontae Johnson14170
Jaylen Samuels11130
James Conner34120
Xavier Grimble0100
Donte Moncrief0100
Johnny Holton0100
Ryan Switzer1400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.63
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.42