Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.176
- 41.7%Success rate35.9%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.226
- 8.5%Explosive rate5.9%
- 34.4%Third-down rate33.3%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.14Points / drive0.87
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Young | 13/23 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5/6 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Phillips | 9 | 102 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Charlie Garner | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Steve Young | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 10 | 28 | 1 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/31 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 7 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Andy McCullough | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| David Boston | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.54