1999 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Steve Young

24·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 97°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.176
  • 41.7%Success rate35.9%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.148
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.226
  • 8.5%Explosive rate5.9%
  • 34.4%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 42.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.14Points / drive0.87
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.8%
  • +0.079EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:00732Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 11:2755Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:4737Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:29422Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 6:4120Turnover13–0
SFQ1 5:54111Touchdown14–0
ARIQ1 5:4748Punt14–0
SFQ1 4:00822Punt14–0
ARIQ2 14:033-1Punt14–0
SFQ2 12:43856Field goal17–0
ARIQ2 9:0133Punt17–0
SFQ2 7:3138Punt17–0
ARIQ2 5:591468Turnover17–0
SFQ2 1:49925Punt17–0
ARIQ2 0:2000End of half17–0
ARIQ3 15:001280Touchdown17–7
SFQ3 9:4535Punt17–7
ARIQ3 8:0049Punt17–7
SFQ3 5:5937Punt17–7
ARIQ3 3:43534Field goal17–10
SFQ3 1:091145Punt17–10
ARIQ4 9:171545Punt17–10
SFQ4 2:32584Touchdown24–10
ARIQ4 1:4210Turnover24–10
SFQ4 1:2800End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Young13/239211
Jeff Garcia5/63000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lawrence Phillips910211.31
Charlie Garner21753.61
Steve Young2199.50
Jeff Garcia393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens45590
Jerry Rice310281
Lawrence Phillips34150
Mark Harris1170
J.J. Stokes2240
Chad Fann0100
Charlie Garner3300

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer16/3117602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell16422.60
Michael Pittman6355.80
Jake Plummer5204.00
Mario Bates111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders79740
Andy McCullough24430
Terry Hardy45310
Michael Pittman12110
Adrian Murrell12100
Johnny McWilliams1270
David Boston0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.54