Closing spread
SF -15
Total
44
Model margin
+9.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.179
- 41.0%Success rate51.6%
- -0.082EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.014EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.3%Explosive rate13.8%
- -2.77CPOE+4.51
- 39.6%Third-down rate48.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 1.88Points / drive2.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 28/41 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 7 | 7 | 76 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 20/21 | 283 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 106 | 5.3 | 3 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 6 | 148 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.0%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.89
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+9.34