2023 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

16·35

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -15

Total

44

Model margin

+9.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.179
  • 41.0%Success rate51.6%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.014EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.3%Explosive rate13.8%
  • -2.77CPOE+4.51
  • 39.6%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.69
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:23955Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 9:07822Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:23975Touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 14:141444Field goal3–14
SFQ2 8:14575Touchdown3–21
ARIQ2 5:221392Touchdown10–21
SFQ2 0:2300End of half10–21
SFQ3 15:00741Punt10–21
ARIQ3 10:371294Touchdown16–21
SFQ3 4:12875Touchdown16–28
ARIQ4 14:221042Punt16–28
SFQ4 9:131576Touchdown16–35
ARIQ4 1:591160Turnover on downs16–35
SFQ4 0:0700End of half16–35

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs28/4126520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner11524.70
Joshua Dobbs12484.00
Emari Demercado133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown710960
Michael Wilson77762
Zach Ertz610530
Emari Demercado34210
Zach Pascal34100
Trey McBride1150
James Conner1240
Geoff Swaim0100
Rondale Moore0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy20/2128310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey201065.33
Jordan Mason3103.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.362.00
Brock Purdy200.01
Sam Darnold1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk661480
Christian McCaffrey78711
Ray-Ray McCloud22220
Jordan Mason11130
Willie Snead1190
George Kittle1190
Ronnie Bell1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +156.8%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.5%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.0%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.89
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+9.34