Closing spread
SF -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.063
- 47.3%Success rate46.0%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.059
- 10.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.11CPOE+1.77
- 43.0%Third-down rate43.1%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.31Points / drive2.24
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/30 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 83 | 11.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/35 | 244 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 12 | 147 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.12