2024 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

24·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.063
  • 47.3%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.023EPA / rush-0.059
  • 10.0%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +2.11CPOE+1.77
  • 43.0%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.24
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
SFQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:59272Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 13:12560Field goal7–3
ARIQ1 10:2530Punt7–3
SFQ1 9:311376Touchdown7–10
ARIQ1 2:20958Field goal10–10
SFQ2 12:431178Field goal10–13
ARIQ2 6:59438Opp touchdown10–20
ARIQ2 4:59638Turnover10–20
SFQ2 1:50733Field goal10–23
ARIQ3 15:0031Punt10–23
SFQ3 13:29411Turnover10–23
ARIQ3 11:5236Field goal13–23
SFQ3 9:591148Turnover on downs13–23
ARIQ3 2:521273Touchdown21–23
SFQ4 11:25861Turnover21–23
ARIQ4 6:111375Field goal24–23
SFQ4 1:37215Turnover24–23
ARIQ4 1:1000End of half24–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray19/3019511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner19864.50
Kyler Murray78311.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson56780
Trey McBride69530
Marvin Harrison Jr.27360
James Conner23140
Greg Dortch1270
Tip Reiman1150
Elijah Higgins1121
Emari Demercado1100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/3524412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason14896.40
Brock Purdy4338.30
Isaac Guerendo5224.40
Deebo Samuel Sr.393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk8121470
George Kittle812641
Jauan Jennings14130
Deebo Samuel Sr.13110
Jordan Mason1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.12