2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Joshua Dobbs

24·47

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.067
  • 46.0%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.023
  • 10.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.77CPOE+2.11
  • 43.1%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.31
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:00537Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 12:48515Punt3–0
SFQ1 10:131273Missed field goal3–0
ARIQ1 3:41825Field goal3–3
SFQ1 0:5632Turnover3–3
ARIQ1 0:11740Touchdown3–10
SFQ2 12:5539Punt3–10
ARIQ2 11:1739Punt3–10
SFQ2 9:53979Touchdown10–10
ARIQ2 5:43867Touchdown10–17
SFQ2 1:51970Touchdown17–17
ARIQ2 0:16339Field goal17–20
ARIQ3 15:0038Punt17–20
SFQ3 13:373-8Punt17–20
ARIQ3 11:41742Touchdown17–26
SFQ3 8:28780Touchdown24–26
ARIQ3 4:491070Touchdown24–33
SFQ4 14:16955Turnover24–33
ARIQ4 8:5636Punt24–33
SFQ4 7:1130Turnover24–33
ARIQ4 6:38315Touchdown24–40
SFQ4 5:47927Turnover on downs24–40
ARIQ4 4:03557Touchdown24–47
SFQ4 1:47213End of half24–47

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs29/4332622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Taylor171096.40
Joshua Dobbs8172.11
Jacob Cowing177.00
Isaac Guerendo252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Pearsall68691
Chris Conley44590
Jauan Jennings710520
Jacob Cowing22300
George Kittle23270
Eric Saubert45170
Patrick Taylor14120
Trent Taylor11110
Brayden Willis0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray25/3524240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Jones45513.81
Michael Carter17432.51
Kyler Murray3227.30
DeeJay Dallas12222.00
Greg Dortch177.00
Clayton Tune122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride711651
Marvin Harrison Jr.56631
Greg Dortch44472
Zay Jones45460
Michael Carter44160
DeeJay Dallas1150
Xavier Weaver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.37
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+5.82