Closing spread
ARI -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.067
- 46.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.023
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.77CPOE+2.11
- 43.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.24Points / drive2.31
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 29/43 | 326 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Taylor | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Jacob Cowing | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Jacob Cowing | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brayden Willis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 25/35 | 242 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Jones | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 7 | 11 | 65 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 47 | 2 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Xavier Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.37
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+5.82