2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB David Blough

13·38

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SF -14

Total

40

Model margin

+7.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.084
  • 40.7%Success rate46.1%
  • -0.079EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.021
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.70CPOE-1.99
  • 35.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.20
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:00280Touchdown6–0
SFQ1 14:18675Touchdown6–7
ARIQ1 10:403-5Punt6–7
SFQ1 9:073-5Punt6–7
ARIQ1 7:31519Turnover on downs6–7
SFQ1 5:163-19Punt6–7
ARIQ1 3:41415Punt6–7
SFQ1 1:35618Punt6–7
ARIQ2 13:5910Turnover6–7
SFQ2 13:50313Touchdown6–14
ARIQ2 12:071375Touchdown13–14
SFQ2 4:411066Touchdown13–21
ARIQ2 0:1911End of half13–21
SFQ3 15:00775Touchdown13–28
ARIQ3 11:3235Turnover13–28
SFQ3 10:23725Field goal13–31
ARIQ3 5:47314Turnover13–31
SFQ3 4:13628Touchdown13–38
ARIQ3 1:01933Turnover on downs13–38
SFQ4 12:1138Punt13–38
ARIQ4 9:5038Punt13–38
SFQ4 7:49421Punt13–38
ARIQ4 4:44411Turnover13–38
SFQ4 2:2946Turnover on downs13–38
ARIQ4 0:2700End of half13–38

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough14/1818012
Trace McSorley6/92901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Clement8232.91
Greg Dortch2157.50
Trace McSorley3134.30
Pharoh Cooper273.50
Keaontay Ingram351.70
David Blough2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green35911
Trey McBride33410
Greg Dortch44300
Corey Clement34250
Marquise Brown1470
Pharoh Cooper2260
Andre Baccellia1160
Ty'Son Williams1150
Keaontay Ingram23-20

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy15/2017830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell55511.02
Christian McCaffrey10454.50
Jordan Mason8283.50
Tyrion Davis-Price8273.40
Brock Purdy471.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk45590
Christian McCaffrey33341
George Kittle46292
Deebo Samuel Sr.23200
Jauan Jennings12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.04