Closing spread
SF -14
Total
40
Model margin
+7.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.084
- 40.7%Success rate46.1%
- -0.079EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.021
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.70CPOE-1.99
- 35.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.60Points / drive2.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 14/18 | 180 | 1 | 2 |
| Trace McSorley | 6/9 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Clement | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| David Blough | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 5 | 91 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/20 | 178 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 29 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.04