Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play+0.190
- 48.6%Success rate56.9%
- +0.270EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.142
- 5.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.61CPOE+0.77
- 46.2%Third-down rate58.3%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.35Points / drive2.98
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.51