2026 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

30·36

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.024EPA / play+0.153
  • 44.6%Success rate52.5%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.001
  • 4.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +0.50CPOE+4.63
  • 38.2%Third-down rate51.0%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.81
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:001342Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:18385Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:26723Punt0–7
SFQ1 5:111188Touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 14:55411Punt0–14
SFQ2 12:0735Punt0–14
ARIQ2 11:121464Field goal3–14
SFQ2 3:03615Punt3–14
ARIQ2 1:30744Field goal6–14
SFQ2 0:23234Field goal6–17
SFQ3 15:00756Touchdown6–23
ARIQ3 11:071469Touchdown13–23
SFQ3 3:02416Punt13–23
ARIQ3 0:5630Punt13–23
ARIQ3 0:3169Touchdown20–23
SFQ4 13:061064Touchdown20–29
ARIQ4 8:421468Touchdown27–29
SFQ4 2:51775Touchdown27–36
ARIQ4 1:31335Field goal30–36
SFQ4 0:3400End of half30–36

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett38/5228020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremiyah Love21904.30
Jacoby Brissett441.01
Tyler Allgeier2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson1117891
Trey McBride911750
Marvin Harrison Jr.35400
Kendrick Bourne23220
Elijah Higgins33200
Jeremiyah Love55191
Tyler Allgeier44100
Hunter Long1150
Jalen Brooks0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy15/2729740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey15755.01
Brock Purdy23417.00
Kaelon Black4174.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle67822
Jordan Watkins22600
Christian McCaffrey45410
Mike Evans36341
Luke Farrell0100
Jacob Cowing0200
Kaelon Black0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.30