Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.091
- 43.0%Success rate48.5%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.033
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.10CPOE+5.72
- 41.6%Third-down rate50.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.48
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/35 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 27/41 | 284 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 8 | 11 | 117 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 15 | 88 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49