2025 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

15·16

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.091
  • 43.0%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.033
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.10CPOE+5.72
  • 41.6%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.48
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:001032Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 8:1436Punt0–0
ARIQ1 6:521132Punt0–0
SFQ1 0:5131Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:541149Field goal3–0
SFQ2 8:45849Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 4:2239Punt3–3
SFQ2 2:081163Field goal3–6
ARIQ2 0:171-5End of half3–6
SFQ3 15:00521Punt3–6
ARIQ3 13:121482Field goal6–6
SFQ3 6:371173Turnover on downs6–6
ARIQ3 0:1539Punt6–6
SFQ4 13:59648Touchdown6–13
ARIQ4 10:50532Touchdown13–13
SFQ4 8:37636Turnover13–13
ARIQ4 5:0835Punt13–13
SFQ4 3:2920Safety15–13
ARIQ4 3:15515Punt15–13
SFQ4 1:46859Field goal15–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3515910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Benson10424.20
Kyler Murray6376.20
James Conner9222.40
Greg Dortch155.00
Emari Demercado200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.36440
Trey McBride58431
Zay Jones23250
James Conner34150
Trey Benson3490
Tip Reiman2380
Elijah Higgins1170
Michael Wilson1250
Greg Dortch2230
Emari Demercado0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones27/4128411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey17523.10
Brian Robinson22211.00
Mac Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Pearsall8111170
Christian McCaffrey1015880
Kendrick Bourne46380
Jake Tonges23210
Skyy Moore11100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.49