2023 · Week 15 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

45·29

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

SF -12.5

Total

48

Model margin

-2.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.055
  • 51.6%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.082
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.014
  • 13.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +4.51CPOE-2.77
  • 48.1%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.88
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00870Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 10:40875Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 6:33633Opp touchdown14–7
ARIQ1 4:22740Field goal14–10
SFQ2 14:1134Punt14–10
ARIQ2 12:291044Field goal14–13
SFQ2 6:141155Touchdown21–13
ARIQ2 1:1435Punt21–13
SFQ2 0:53542End of half21–13
SFQ3 15:00475Touchdown28–13
ARIQ3 13:1832Punt28–13
SFQ3 11:3933Punt28–13
ARIQ3 10:381181Field goal28–16
SFQ3 4:20757Touchdown35–16
ARIQ3 1:08875Touchdown35–22
SFQ4 11:30775Touchdown42–22
ARIQ4 7:09511Turnover42–22
SFQ4 6:13522Field goal45–22
ARIQ4 3:091275Touchdown45–29
SFQ4 0:4700End of half45–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy16/2524240
Sam Darnold2/32000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey181156.41
Jordan Mason5204.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.11111.00
Sam Darnold2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey55722
George Kittle24540
Deebo Samuel Sr.47482
Brandon Aiyuk35370
Jauan Jennings22250
Ronnie Bell0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray26/3921112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14866.11
Emari Demercado46416.01
Kyler Murray6498.20
Michael Carter3279.00
Greg Dortch155.00
Rondale Moore133.00
Clayton Tune100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride10111020
Elijah Higgins44441
Geoff Swaim11260
Greg Dortch23150
Michael Carter33100
Emari Demercado1360
Rondale Moore2350
James Conner3330
Zach Pascal0400
Michael Wilson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.1%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-2.24