Closing spread
SF -12.5
Total
48
Model margin
-2.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.055
- 51.6%Success rate41.0%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.082
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.014
- 13.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.51CPOE-2.77
- 48.1%Third-down rate39.6%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.69Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 16/25 | 242 | 4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2/3 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 18 | 115 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 72 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 26/39 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 10 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.24