Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.014
- 48.5%Success rate43.0%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.042
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- +5.72CPOE+1.10
- 50.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.48Points / drive1.88
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/26 | 200 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 67 | 2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 47/57 | 452 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 15 | 18 | 185 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 10 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 6 | 6 | 66 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Weaver | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.22