2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

41·22

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.014
  • 48.5%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.042
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +5.72CPOE+1.10
  • 50.4%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.88
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W11SF @ ARI38–10SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:0011Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 14:44517Punt7–0
SFQ1 11:59570Touchdown13–0
ARIQ1 9:51972Touchdown13–7
SFQ1 4:5830Punt13–7
ARIQ1 2:4439Missed field goal13–7
SFQ1 0:55647Touchdown19–7
ARIQ2 13:391273Field goal19–10
SFQ2 6:2935Punt19–10
ARIQ2 5:15414Punt19–10
SFQ2 2:50526Field goal22–10
ARIQ2 1:01419Turnover22–10
SFQ2 0:19318Field goal25–10
ARIQ3 15:00514Punt25–10
SFQ3 12:32839Field goal28–10
ARIQ3 7:27663Turnover28–10
SFQ3 4:22514Touchdown35–10
ARIQ3 2:321177Turnover35–10
SFQ4 13:5238Punt35–10
ARIQ4 11:451065Touchdown35–16
SFQ4 8:28745Touchdown41–16
ARIQ4 4:44865Touchdown41–22
SFQ4 2:43211End of half41–22

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2620030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13816.22
Brian Robinson8243.00
Mac Jones3-3-1.00
Brock Purdy1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle66672
Jauan Jennings46540
Christian McCaffrey56401
Demarcus Robinson12130
Brian Robinson0100
Ricky Pearsall1200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett47/5745222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight5244.81
Emari Demercado581.60
Michael Carter263.00
Jacoby Brissett2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson15181850
Trey McBride10111151
Greg Dortch66661
Michael Carter57220
Bam Knight44210
Xavier Weaver23150
Emari Demercado23120
Elijah Higgins23110
Andre Baccellia1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.22