Closing spread
SD -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 19/40 | 200 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Shehee | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.