Closing spread
SD -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:25 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:30 | 2 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:22 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:24 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 3:37 | 4 | 23 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 1:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–0 |
| KC | Q1 0:31 | 6 | 35 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:16 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 10:09 | 5 | 6 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:03 | 2 | 10 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 7:20 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 3:44 | 6 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:52 | 2 | 18 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:41 | 10 | 40 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:16 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| KC | Q3 10:57 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 8:57 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–21 |
| KC | Q3 6:58 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 4:36 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| KC | Q3 1:00 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 12:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–21 |
| KC | Q4 10:39 | 15 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 2:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–21 |
| KC | Q4 1:01 | 7 | 31 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 19/40 | 200 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Shehee | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.