Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.042
- 43.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.01CPOE-1.09
- 46.7%Third-down rate39.4%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.10Points / drive2.23
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 19/29 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden II | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/28 | 189 | 0 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3/5 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.51