2025 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

16·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.042
  • 43.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.060
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.01CPOE-1.09
  • 46.7%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.23
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
KCQ1 15:001153Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 8:521136Field goal3–7
KCQ1 2:3032Punt3–7
LACQ1 0:52411Punt3–7
KCQ2 13:3231Punt3–7
LACQ2 11:543-1Turnover3–7
KCQ2 10:59610Field goal3–10
LACQ2 8:04922Punt3–10
KCQ2 2:501060Field goal3–13
LACQ2 0:38560Touchdown10–13
KCQ2 0:0500End of half10–13
LACQ3 15:001271Field goal13–13
KCQ3 8:553-11Punt13–13
LACQ3 7:53513Punt13–13
KCQ3 4:5537Punt13–13
LACQ3 3:31429Field goal16–13
KCQ3 0:51949Turnover16–13
LACQ4 12:411255Punt16–13
KCQ4 5:201368Turnover16–13
LACQ4 0:1400End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert19/2921011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton15614.10
Kimani Vidal12332.80
Justin Herbert200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Oronde Gadsden II45610
Tre Harris35490
Keenan Allen57360
Ladd McConkey23200
KeAndre Lambert-Smith11161
Kimani Vidal11150
Omarion Hampton1140

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2818901
Gardner Minshew3/52201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco11211.90
Patrick Mahomes2157.51
Kareem Hunt6122.00
Brashard Smith210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce79700
Rashee Rice711510
Tyquan Thornton23470
Xavier Worthy24350
Kareem Hunt1280
JuJu Smith-Schuster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.51