Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.044
- 47.7%Success rate42.3%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.079
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.51CPOE+1.69
- 48.6%Third-down rate40.1%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.36Points / drive2.25
- 1.2%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 19/29 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 16/27 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.01