2024 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

17·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.044
  • 47.7%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.079
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.51CPOE+1.69
  • 48.6%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.25
  • 1.2%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
KCQ1 15:00443Turnover0–0
LACQ1 12:521074Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 6:1610Turnover0–7
LACQ1 6:06513Field goal0–10
KCQ1 3:533-2Punt0–10
LACQ1 2:25414Punt0–10
KCQ2 14:44314Punt0–10
LACQ2 13:1839Punt0–10
KCQ2 11:22915Punt0–10
LACQ2 5:4131Punt6–10
KCQ2 4:14154Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 4:063-8Punt7–10
KCQ2 3:121149Missed field goal7–10
LACQ3 15:00642Missed field goal7–10
KCQ3 11:46942Field goal10–10
LACQ3 6:261467Turnover on downs10–10
KCQ4 13:32944Punt10–10
LACQ4 9:2431Punt10–10
KCQ4 8:16654Touchdown17–10
LACQ4 6:04511Punt17–10
KCQ4 3:15319End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes19/2924511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14694.90
Samaje Perine5142.81
Patrick Mahomes5122.40
Carson Steele263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce79890
Xavier Worthy34731
Noah Gray44400
Justin Watson23270
Kareem Hunt23160
Skyy Moore0200
Carson Steele1300

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert16/2717910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins14322.30
Gus Edwards6193.20
Quentin Johnston144.00
Justin Herbert300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey57671
Josh Palmer34360
J.K. Dobbins34300
Will Dissly23240
Quentin Johnston1590
Hayden Hurst1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.01