2024 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

17·19

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.044EPA / play+0.071
  • 42.3%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.058
  • 9.2%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +1.69CPOE+2.51
  • 40.1%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.36
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
KCQ1 15:001034Field goal0–3
LACQ1 10:05726Punt0–3
KCQ1 6:34523Punt0–3
LACQ1 4:27753Punt0–3
KCQ1 0:08521Punt0–3
LACQ2 12:2331Punt0–3
KCQ2 11:20740Field goal0–6
LACQ2 7:4734Punt0–6
KCQ2 6:2047Punt0–6
LACQ2 4:45412Punt0–6
KCQ2 3:281062Touchdown0–13
LACQ2 0:47531End of half0–13
LACQ3 15:001374Touchdown7–13
KCQ3 7:1239Punt7–13
LACQ3 5:42535Touchdown14–13
KCQ3 3:301255Field goal14–16
LACQ4 13:041352Field goal17–16
KCQ4 4:351149Field goal17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3021310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards10363.61
Kimani Vidal8344.30
Taylor Heinicke11212.00
Justin Herbert4123.00
Derius Davis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer69780
Stone Smartt33540
Quentin Johnston57481
Will Dissly22190
DJ Chark1190
Jalen Reagor1140
Derius Davis2410
Tucker Fisk1100
Kimani Vidal0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3721010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco14553.90
Patrick Mahomes4174.30
Kareem Hunt5163.20
Xavier Worthy155.00
Samaje Perine133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce56450
Xavier Worthy56410
DeAndre Hopkins49321
JuJu Smith-Schuster22310
Noah Gray45260
Samaje Perine12160
Kareem Hunt11130
Isiah Pacheco2460
Baylor Cupp0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+1.56