Closing spread
KC -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.071
- 42.3%Success rate47.7%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.058
- 9.2%Explosive rate5.8%
- +1.69CPOE+2.51
- 40.1%Third-down rate48.6%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.25Points / drive2.36
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/30 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kimani Vidal | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/37 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Baylor Cupp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+1.56