2022 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

30·27

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.007
  • 50.6%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.057
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +3.02CPOE+1.13
  • 49.4%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.97
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
KCQ1 15:001060Field goal3–0
LACQ1 10:54375Touchdown3–7
KCQ1 9:33641Field goal6–7
LACQ1 5:58847Field goal6–10
KCQ1 2:35899Touchdown13–10
LACQ2 14:1355Punt13–10
KCQ2 11:3037Punt13–10
LACQ2 10:341370Touchdown13–17
KCQ2 3:3135Punt13–17
LACQ2 2:41843Field goal13–20
KCQ2 0:14229End of half13–20
LACQ3 15:00514Punt13–20
KCQ3 11:12951Field goal16–20
LACQ3 6:2239Punt16–20
KCQ3 4:451086Touchdown23–20
LACQ4 14:50843Turnover23–20
KCQ4 10:09638Turnover23–20
LACQ4 6:471064Touchdown23–27
KCQ4 1:46770Touchdown30–27
LACQ4 0:312-5Turnover30–27
KCQ4 0:1600End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/3432930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco151077.10
Jerick McKinnon6244.00
Patrick Mahomes4235.80
Clyde Edwards-Helaire294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce6101153
Justin Watson34670
Skyy Moore56630
Joseph Fortson22510
Marquez Valdes-Scantling14180
Noah Gray23150
Jerick McKinnon1100
Kadarius Toney0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert23/3028021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler19834.41
Justin Herbert5173.40
Isaiah Spiller4112.80
Zander Horvath133.00
Sony Michel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer8101062
Keenan Allen58940
DeAndre Carter33330
Austin Ekeler22170
Mike Williams11150
Isaiah Spiller22110
Stone Smartt1160
Michael Bandy0100
Justin Herbert11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01