Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.007
- 50.6%Success rate44.1%
- +0.273EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.057
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- +3.02CPOE+1.13
- 49.4%Third-down rate43.5%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.71Points / drive1.97
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/34 | 329 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 107 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 115 | 3 |
| Justin Watson | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/30 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 8 | 10 | 106 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 94 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01