2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Blaine Gabbert

13·12

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Easton Stick

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

35

Model margin

-0.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.070
  • 43.8%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.242
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.52CPOE-1.84
  • 44.9%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
KCQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
LACQ1 14:051973Opp touchdown7–0
LACQ1 4:56422Punt7–0
KCQ1 2:5757Punt7–0
LACQ1 0:2436Punt7–0
KCQ2 14:08727Punt7–0
LACQ2 10:3131Punt7–0
KCQ2 9:381166Field goal10–0
LACQ2 4:03511Field goal10–3
KCQ2 2:43623Turnover10–3
LACQ2 1:24952Field goal10–6
LACQ3 15:003-1Punt10–6
KCQ3 13:07534Punt10–6
LACQ3 10:101160Field goal10–9
KCQ3 4:11730Punt10–9
LACQ3 0:08537Punt10–9
KCQ4 13:31625Punt10–9
LACQ4 10:551784Field goal10–12
KCQ4 4:06851Field goal13–12
LACQ4 0:4948Turnover on downs13–12
KCQ4 0:1300End of half13–12

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert15/3015401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
La'Mical Perine21763.60
Blaine Gabbert5469.20
Clyde Edwards-Helaire210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mecole Hardman611770
La'Mical Perine34330
Justyn Ross24170
Richie James22150
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1290
Blake Bell1230
Justin Watson0100
Noah Gray0300

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Easton Stick28/4725800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Easton Stick13775.90
Derius Davis3175.70
Austin Ekeler10111.10
Josh Palmer166.00
Quentin Johnston166.00
Joshua Kelley210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Parham56830
Josh Palmer610440
Austin Ekeler78380
Alex Erickson25290
Derius Davis11180
Quentin Johnston25170
Stone Smartt23140
Keelan Doss1580
Gerald Everett1140
Nick Vannett1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.62