Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
35
Model margin
-0.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.070
- 43.8%Success rate41.4%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.242
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- +1.52CPOE-1.84
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.3%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.89Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 15/30 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La'Mical Perine | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Justyn Ross | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Richie James | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 28/47 | 258 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Parham | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 6 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Keelan Doss | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62