Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.021
- 41.4%Success rate43.8%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.111
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.84CPOE+1.52
- 38.3%Third-down rate44.9%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.75Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/30 | 259 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 7 | 133 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 32/42 | 424 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 12 | 13 | 179 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.25