2023 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

17·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.070EPA / play+0.021
  • 41.4%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.111
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.84CPOE+1.52
  • 38.3%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
LACQ1 15:0068Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:591186Field goal0–3
LACQ1 6:49938Field goal3–3
KCQ1 1:48575Touchdown3–10
LACQ2 14:11785Touchdown10–10
KCQ2 10:42475Touchdown10–17
LACQ2 8:37575Touchdown17–17
KCQ2 7:06414Turnover17–17
LACQ2 5:44628Punt17–17
KCQ2 2:48883Touchdown17–24
LACQ2 0:1500End of half17–24
KCQ3 15:00956Turnover17–24
LACQ3 10:241173Turnover17–24
KCQ3 4:56823Punt17–24
LACQ3 0:1638Punt17–24
KCQ4 13:3437Punt17–24
LACQ4 12:4138Punt17–24
KCQ4 11:51831Punt17–24
LACQ4 8:0035Punt17–24
KCQ4 6:16635Touchdown17–31
LACQ4 3:30931Turnover17–31
KCQ4 1:0700End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert17/3025912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joshua Kelley77510.71
Austin Ekeler14453.20
Derius Davis3144.70
Justin Herbert252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer571330
Keenan Allen49550
Gerald Everett34261
Quentin Johnston12200
Derius Davis12100
Donald Parham1390
Stone Smartt1150
Austin Ekeler1210

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes32/4242441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco13322.50
Patrick Mahomes4297.30
Clyde Edwards-Helaire252.50
Jerick McKinnon221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce12131791
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35841
Rashee Rice56601
Isiah Pacheco44281
Jerick McKinnon22240
Skyy Moore23150
Kadarius Toney11130
Noah Gray1180
Blake Bell1170
Mecole Hardman1360
Clyde Edwards-Helaire0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+5.25