Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+22.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapChiefs
- -0.167EPA / play+0.118
- 40.0%Success rate40.9%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.360EPA / rush+0.259
- 5.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- -6.21CPOE-11.92
- 25.0%Third-down rate56.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.39Points / drive2.57
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+19.38
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+22.16