2026 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

6·22

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.209EPA / play+0.104
  • 36.9%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.191EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.235EPA / rush+0.075
  • 6.6%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -5.83CPOE+0.11
  • 33.8%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.28
  • 3.5%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
KCQ1 15:00761Field goal0–3
LACQ1 11:203-1Punt0–3
KCQ1 10:28667Touchdown0–9
LACQ1 7:211049Field goal3–9
KCQ1 1:33512Punt3–9
LACQ2 14:08827Turnover3–9
KCQ2 10:43515Turnover3–9
LACQ2 8:30620Punt3–9
KCQ2 5:29880Touchdown3–16
LACQ2 1:4938Punt3–16
KCQ2 0:25333Field goal3–19
LACQ2 0:0200End of half3–19
LACQ3 15:00970Field goal6–19
KCQ3 10:44762Turnover on downs6–19
LACQ3 6:2931Punt6–19
LACQ3 4:243-2Punt6–19
KCQ3 2:1738Punt6–19
LACQ3 0:21634Turnover on downs6–19
KCQ4 13:46427Missed field goal6–19
LACQ4 11:46519Turnover6–19
KCQ4 9:431160Field goal6–22
LACQ4 3:521234Turnover on downs6–22
KCQ4 0:5600End of half6–22

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3720401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert5265.20
Kimani Vidal7213.00
Omarion Hampton7182.60
Keaton Mitchell242.00
Derius Davis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston13570
KeAndre Lambert-Smith59320
Theo Wease Jr.23210
Omarion Hampton44210
Charlie Kolar36200
Kimani Vidal34190
Ladd McConkey11170
Oronde Gadsden II35170
Keaton Mitchell0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3027201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III191286.72
Patrick Mahomes5163.20
Emmett Johnson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy77730
Travis Kelce45530
Noah Gray33530
Cyrus Allen22270
Jalen Royals24240
Emmett Johnson23180
Andrew Armstrong12130
Kenneth Walker III23110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.86