2025 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

21·27

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.016
  • 44.5%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.080
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.09CPOE+0.01
  • 39.4%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.10
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC
2022 · W2LAC @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
KCQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:26863Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 9:11628Punt0–7
LACQ1 6:0138Punt0–7
KCQ1 4:2831Punt0–7
LACQ1 3:271088Field goal0–10
KCQ2 13:471659Field goal3–10
LACQ2 4:501152Field goal3–13
KCQ2 0:45341Field goal6–13
LACQ3 15:0031Punt6–13
KCQ3 13:581286Touchdown12–13
LACQ3 8:051279Touchdown12–20
KCQ3 0:32765Touchdown18–20
LACQ4 12:041174Touchdown18–27
KCQ4 5:02963Field goal21–27
LACQ4 2:34433End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3925810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes6579.51
Isiah Pacheco5255.00
Kareem Hunt5163.20
Xavier Worthy100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown1016990
JuJu Smith-Schuster55550
Travis Kelce24471
Tyquan Thornton24410
Kareem Hunt23100
Noah Gray1130
Isiah Pacheco2330
Jason Brownlee0100
Xavier Worthy0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert25/3431830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton15483.20
Justin Herbert7324.60
Najee Harris155.00
Derius Davis133.00
Tyler Conklin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston57792
Ladd McConkey69740
Keenan Allen710681
Tyler Conklin22500
Will Dissly11180
Omarion Hampton22130
Tre Harris11110
Najee Harris1150
KeAndre Lambert-Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.98