Closing spread
KC -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.016
- 44.5%Success rate43.6%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.09CPOE+0.01
- 39.4%Third-down rate46.7%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.23Points / drive2.10
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/39 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 10 | 16 | 99 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jason Brownlee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/34 | 318 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 7 | 79 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.98