1999 · Week 4

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

19·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -12

Total

38

Model margin

+1.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

0.9%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.110
  • 37.4%Success rate35.3%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.177
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.12
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.100

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:34948Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 8:53551Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 6:473-4Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:18264Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 4:31618Punt0–7
CLEQ1 1:3433Punt0–7
NEQ1 0:23967Field goal3–7
CLEQ2 10:21610Punt3–7
NEQ2 7:03457Turnover3–7
CLEQ2 5:483-2Punt3–7
NEQ2 4:151045Field goal6–7
CLEQ2 0:2615End of half6–7
NEQ3 15:001280Touchdown13–7
CLEQ3 9:2300Missed field goal13–7
NEQ3 9:1331Missed field goal13–7
CLEQ3 8:08528Punt13–7
NEQ3 6:5230Punt13–7
CLEQ3 4:48730Punt13–7
NEQ3 1:12480Touchdown19–7
CLEQ4 14:5130Punt19–7
NEQ4 12:0036Punt19–7
CLEQ4 11:1134Punt19–7
NEQ4 9:53836Punt19–7
CLEQ4 5:38623Punt19–7
NEQ4 4:10619Punt19–7
CLEQ4 1:47518Turnover on downs19–7
NEQ4 1:0400End of half19–7

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe29/4339310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen21683.21
Lamont Warren6101.70
Tony Carter144.00
Drew Bledsoe4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn13182141
Troy Brown44590
Shawn Jefferson13320
Tony Simmons45290
Vincent Brisby22270
Tony Carter34130
Lamont Warren1280
Terry Allen0100
Ben Coates0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch13/2820110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Kirby15714.70
Tim Couch3113.70
George Jones122.00
Ronnie Powell1-14-14.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson691311
Terry Kirby47390
Darrin Chiaverini24230
Leslie Shepherd1580
Mark Campbell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -124.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

0.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.69