Closing spread
NE -12
Total
38
Model margin
+1.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.110
- 37.4%Success rate35.3%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.177
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 35.1%Third-down rate29.7%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.19Points / drive1.12
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 29/43 | 393 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 13 | 18 | 214 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 13/28 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| George Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Powell | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 9 | 131 | 1 |
| Terry Kirby | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
0.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69