Closing spread
NE -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.154
- 35.2%Success rate48.2%
- -0.212EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.089
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.5%
- -5.66CPOE+10.94
- 33.8%Third-down rate43.3%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.18Points / drive2.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 21/35 | 156 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 6 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Jamari Thrash | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 18/24 | 282 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 7 | 7 | 89 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88