2025 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dillon Gabriel

13·32

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.176EPA / play+0.154
  • 35.2%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.089
  • 6.1%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -5.66CPOE+10.94
  • 33.8%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NE
NEQ1 15:001154Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 8:45670Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 5:1038Punt7–3
CLEQ1 3:09412Punt7–3
NEQ1 0:53626Turnover7–3
CLEQ2 13:0335Missed field goal7–3
NEQ2 11:22649Field goal7–6
CLEQ2 7:4136Punt7–6
NEQ2 6:0339Punt7–6
CLEQ2 4:15420Punt7–6
NEQ2 2:09664Field goal7–9
CLEQ3 15:0031Punt7–9
NEQ3 13:13777Touchdown7–16
CLEQ3 9:1033Turnover7–16
NEQ3 7:3136Touchdown7–23
CLEQ3 6:43511Turnover7–23
NEQ3 3:42676Touchdown7–30
CLEQ3 0:531357Turnover on downs7–30
NEQ4 12:143-2Punt7–30
CLEQ4 10:17326Touchdown13–30
NEQ4 9:24943Turnover13–30
CLEQ4 4:5121Safety13–32
NEQ4 4:0600Turnover on downs13–32
CLEQ4 4:0541Turnover on downs13–32
NEQ4 3:18215End of half13–32

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dillon Gabriel21/3515622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malachi Corley13131.00
Quinshon Judkins9192.10
Dillon Gabriel11313.00
Gage Larvadain133.00
Harold Fannin Jr.122.00
Dylan Sampson300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harold Fannin Jr.68621
David Njoku45371
Jamari Thrash23310
Dylan Sampson56290
Jerry Jeudy0200
Isaiah Bond0400
Jerome Ford12-10
Quinshon Judkins33-20

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye18/2428231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson10757.50
Drake Maye7507.10
Rhamondre Stevenson14342.40
Terrell Jennings2157.50
DeMario Douglas231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins77890
Kayshon Boutte35751
DeMario Douglas11440
Austin Hooper22380
Rhamondre Stevenson12150
Stefon Diggs35141
Hunter Henry1171

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.88