Closing spread
NE -4
Total
44
Model margin
-2.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.077
- 48.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.265EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.77CPOE+2.13
- 48.3%Third-down rate37.8%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.76Points / drive1.31
- 0.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/36 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 9 | 48 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 14/19 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 29 | 184 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-2.02