2010 · Week 9

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

14·34

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

44

Model margin

-2.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.191EPA / play-0.077
  • 48.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback-0.043
  • +0.096EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.77CPOE+2.13
  • 48.3%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.76Points / drive1.31
  • 0.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00542Field goal0–3
NEQ1 11:4900Touchdown0–3
CLEQ1 11:47219Touchdown0–10
NEQ1 11:1133Punt0–10
CLEQ1 10:08528Turnover0–10
NEQ1 7:50513Punt0–10
CLEQ1 5:17741Punt0–10
NEQ1 1:2435Punt0–10
CLEQ1 0:2338Punt0–10
NEQ2 13:441179Touchdown7–10
CLEQ2 8:43960Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 3:23962Turnover7–17
CLEQ2 0:2211End of half7–17
NEQ3 15:00628Punt7–17
CLEQ3 12:531077Touchdown7–24
NEQ3 5:53633Punt7–24
CLEQ3 3:331261Field goal7–27
NEQ4 10:451561Touchdown14–27
CLEQ4 6:37660Touchdown14–34
NEQ4 2:3820Turnover14–34
CLEQ4 2:2037Punt14–34
NEQ4 0:2000End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3622420
Brian Hoyer0/2001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead9546.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis9141.60
Tom Brady111.00
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Hernandez59482
Rob Gronkowski48470
Danny Woodhead25380
Wes Welker46360
Sammy Morris11220
Deion Branch24210
Brandon Tate14120
Julian Edelman0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy14/1917400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis291846.32
Colt McCoy3206.71
Chansi Stuckey11111.01
Mike Bell671.20
Josh Cribbs221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi44580
Peyton Hillis33360
Benjamin Watson14240
Brian Robiskie11200
Evan Moore11170
Josh Cribbs23130
Chansi Stuckey2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-2.02