2021 · Week 10

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

7·45

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.070
  • 43.7%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.133
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.012
  • 11.2%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -2.26CPOE+2.93
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.41
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NE
CLEQ1 15:001179Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 10:051693Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 0:2633Turnover7–13
NEQ2 14:4815Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 14:43623Punt7–14
NEQ2 11:511199Touchdown7–21
CLEQ2 5:403-5Punt7–21
NEQ2 3:481250Field goal7–24
CLEQ2 0:171-9End of half7–24
NEQ3 15:003-7Punt7–24
CLEQ3 13:33519Punt7–24
NEQ3 10:10892Touchdown7–31
CLEQ3 5:0495Turnover on downs7–31
NEQ3 1:32732Touchdown7–38
CLEQ4 13:331581Turnover on downs7–38
NEQ4 8:15690Touchdown7–45
CLEQ4 4:13621Punt7–45
NEQ4 1:0200End of half7–45

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum8/128100
Baker Mayfield11/217311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Ernest Johnson19995.20
Johnny Stanton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
D'Ernest Johnson78580
Jarvis Landry45260
Austin Hooper45251
Harrison Bryant22180
Donovan Peoples-Jones15160
David Njoku14110
Rashard Higgins0100
Anthony Schwartz0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones19/2319830
Brian Hoyer3/38510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson201005.02
Kendrick Bourne34314.30
Brandon Bolden33210.70
J.J. Taylor6111.80
Brian Hoyer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne44981
Jakobi Meyers44491
Brandon Bolden33380
Hunter Henry44372
N'Keal Harry11260
Nelson Agholor24210
Rhamondre Stevenson45140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.72