Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.070
- 43.7%Success rate48.6%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.133
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.012
- 11.2%Explosive rate11.1%
- -2.26CPOE+2.93
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.81Points / drive2.41
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 8/12 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 11/21 | 73 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 19 | 99 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Johnny Stanton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/23 | 198 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3/3 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 4 | 98 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 37 | 2 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.72