2022 · Week 6

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

38·15

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

-1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.013
  • 41.1%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.002
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.93CPOE+1.05
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.91
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0026Turnover0–0
NEQ1 14:211263Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 7:31854Field goal3–3
NEQ1 3:00425Turnover3–3
CLEQ1 0:47520Turnover on downs3–3
NEQ2 13:5666Punt3–3
CLEQ2 11:35733Punt3–3
NEQ2 7:48992Touchdown10–3
CLEQ2 3:23921Field goal10–6
NEQ2 0:2615End of half10–6
NEQ3 15:00775Touchdown17–6
CLEQ3 11:22612Punt17–6
NEQ3 9:0848Punt17–6
CLEQ3 7:1310Turnover17–6
NEQ3 7:02340Touchdown24–6
CLEQ3 5:323-2Punt24–6
NEQ3 4:3237Punt24–6
CLEQ3 2:14858Field goal24–9
NEQ4 14:351166Missed field goal24–9
CLEQ4 9:01975Touchdown24–15
NEQ4 6:173-11Punt30–15
NEQ4 4:32119Touchdown31–15
CLEQ4 4:2825Turnover31–15
NEQ4 3:5638Touchdown38–15
CLEQ4 3:40946Turnover on downs38–15
NEQ4 1:5000End of half38–15

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe24/3430920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson19764.02
Tyquan Thornton3165.31
Kevin Harris351.70
Pierre Strong155.00
Bailey Zappe3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker46640
Hunter Henry47611
Jonnu Smith22610
Jakobi Meyers44600
Tyquan Thornton45371
Kendrick Bourne11170
Rhamondre Stevenson45150
Bailey Zappe11-60

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/4526612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb12564.70
Kareem Hunt4123.00
Donovan Peoples-Jones122.00
Jacoby Brissett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones45740
David Njoku36580
Amari Cooper412441
Pharaoh Brown23210
Harrison Bryant34180
Mike Woods12150
Nick Chubb12140
David Bell12130
D'Ernest Johnson2290
Kareem Hunt0100
Anthony Schwartz0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.42