Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.013
- 41.1%Success rate44.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.002
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.93CPOE+1.05
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.54Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 24/34 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Harris | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 61 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 4 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/45 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 12 | 44 | 1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.42