2007 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

17·34

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -15.5

Total

48

Model margin

+6.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.256
  • 42.4%Success rate53.7%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.422
  • -0.076EPA / rush+0.001
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.23CPOE+7.39
  • 42.7%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive3.13
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NE
NEQ1 15:001378Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 8:01965Turnover0–3
NEQ1 3:4433Punt0–3
CLEQ1 2:5410Turnover0–9
NEQ1 2:44134Touchdown0–10
CLEQ1 2:33519Punt0–10
NEQ1 0:09731Punt0–10
CLEQ2 11:4938Punt0–10
NEQ2 10:29744Field goal0–13
CLEQ2 6:12836Turnover0–13
NEQ2 1:47325Touchdown0–20
CLEQ2 1:0128End of half0–20
CLEQ3 15:0033Punt0–20
NEQ3 13:38640Punt0–20
CLEQ3 11:00856Field goal3–20
NEQ3 7:3234Punt3–20
CLEQ3 5:576-3Punt3–20
NEQ3 4:19412Punt3–20
CLEQ3 3:00755Touchdown10–20
NEQ4 14:10971Touchdown10–27
CLEQ4 9:40613Punt10–27
NEQ4 7:4231Punt10–27
CLEQ4 6:44235Touchdown17–27
NEQ4 5:561369Turnover on downs17–33
CLEQ4 0:52111Opp touchdown17–34
CLEQ4 0:42648Turnover on downs17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson22/4328723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Wright15593.90
Jamal Lewis11111.00
Josh Cribbs11111.00
Derek Anderson372.30

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3826530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris211024.90
Kyle Eckel6162.70
Donte' Stallworth11212.00
Benjamin Watson11111.00
Kevin Faulk362.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.06