2019 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

13·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.010
  • 41.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.078
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -3.23CPOE-2.06
  • 36.3%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.85
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NE
NEQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:2737Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:281171Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 6:3523Opp touchdown0–10
CLEQ1 5:45144Turnover0–10
NEQ1 5:30617Punt0–10
CLEQ1 2:3610Turnover0–10
NEQ1 2:31211Touchdown0–17
CLEQ1 1:47632Punt0–17
NEQ2 12:5430Punt0–17
CLEQ2 11:12654Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 7:441549Missed field goal7–17
CLEQ2 2:19722End of half7–17
CLEQ3 15:001155Field goal10–17
NEQ3 8:37784Touchdown10–24
CLEQ3 6:1130Punt10–24
NEQ3 4:5959Punt10–24
CLEQ3 2:15737Punt10–24
NEQ4 13:101062Field goal10–27
CLEQ4 7:4354Turnover on downs10–27
NEQ4 6:073-2Missed field goal10–27
CLEQ4 4:07652Field goal13–27
NEQ4 2:3335Punt13–27
CLEQ4 1:0640End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3119411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201316.50
Baker Mayfield11818.00
Dontrell Hilliard11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry510650
Odell Beckham Jr.57520
Demetrius Harris23331
Dontrell Hilliard44240
Antonio Callaway23110
Nick Chubb1170
Rashard Higgins1220

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3625920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel21743.50
Rex Burkhead341.30
James White242.00
Julian Edelman1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman811782
James White45750
Phillip Dorsett36430
Benjamin Watson11260
Mohamed Sanu25230
Rex Burkhead1190
Jakobi Meyers1250
Brandon Bolden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+3.57