Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.010
- 41.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- -3.23CPOE-2.06
- 36.3%Third-down rate39.1%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.80Points / drive1.85
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/31 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 131 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/36 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 11 | 78 | 2 |
| James White | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.57