2016 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

33·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -10

Total

47.5

Model margin

-4.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.128EPA / play-0.050
  • 44.3%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.131
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.98CPOE-1.42
  • 47.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.37
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:41880Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 10:281070Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 6:09870Touchdown14–7
CLEQ1 2:061-2Safety16–7
NEQ1 1:20864Touchdown23–7
CLEQ2 12:1068Punt23–7
NEQ2 9:12772Turnover on downs23–7
CLEQ2 6:0354Punt23–7
NEQ2 3:4835Punt23–7
CLEQ2 2:5935Punt23–7
NEQ2 1:51730Missed field goal23–7
CLEQ2 0:12215End of half23–7
NEQ3 15:00970Touchdown30–7
CLEQ3 12:24922Turnover30–7
NEQ3 8:0646Punt30–7
CLEQ3 6:4435Punt30–7
NEQ3 5:42614Punt30–7
CLEQ3 2:27890Touchdown30–13
NEQ4 14:051177Field goal33–13
CLEQ4 7:4233Punt33–13
NEQ4 6:0233Punt33–13
CLEQ4 5:06738Turnover on downs33–13
NEQ4 3:35413Punt33–13
CLEQ4 0:3100End of half33–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4040630
Jimmy Garoppolo0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount18372.11
James White5265.20
D.J. Foster6172.80
Tom Brady2147.00
Matthew Slater155.00
Chris Hogan122.00
Jimmy Garoppolo2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan451140
Rob Gronkowski571090
Martellus Bennett68673
James White46630
Julian Edelman510350
Danny Amendola22110
Malcolm Mitchell2370

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst14/2418211
Cody Kessler5/86210
Terrelle Pryor1/3500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell13221.70
Terrelle Pryor231.50
Charlie Whitehurst210.50
Duke Johnson410.30
Cody Kessler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge58760
Andrew Hawkins47561
Terrelle Pryor56480
Duke Johnson23210
Isaiah Crowell13180
Connor Hamlett11171
Ricardo Louis25130
Malcolm Johnson0100
Rashard Higgins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -103.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.62