Closing spread
NE -10
Total
47.5
Model margin
-4.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play-0.050
- 44.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.276EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.131
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.98CPOE-1.42
- 47.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.47Points / drive1.37
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CLE are 3-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/40 | 406 | 3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 37 | 2.1 | 1 |
| James White | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 5 | 114 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 8 | 67 | 3 |
| James White | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 14/24 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
| Cody Kessler | 5/8 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Connor Hamlett | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.62