Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.062
- 39.2%Success rate46.7%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.79CPOE-1.37
- 34.9%Third-down rate37.9%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.27Points / drive2.05
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 29/44 | 391 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 7 | 10 | 151 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 9 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/52 | 418 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 12 | 17 | 153 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Josh Boyce | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Matthew Mulligan | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.27