2013 · Week 14

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

26·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 30°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -9.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.062
  • 39.2%Success rate46.7%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.79CPOE-1.37
  • 34.9%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.27Points / drive2.05
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE
2004 · W13NE @ CLE42–15NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NE
CLEQ1 15:00947Field goal3–0
NEQ1 9:1835Punt3–0
CLEQ1 8:32629Punt3–0
NEQ1 4:47517Turnover3–0
CLEQ1 3:31837Field goal6–0
NEQ2 14:45949Punt6–0
CLEQ2 10:1638Punt6–0
NEQ2 8:13514Punt6–0
CLEQ2 6:51735Punt6–0
NEQ2 3:23845Punt6–0
CLEQ2 1:06828Punt6–0
NEQ2 0:1100End of half6–0
NEQ3 15:00526Punt6–0
CLEQ3 12:09573Touchdown12–0
NEQ3 10:15636Turnover12–0
CLEQ3 8:08616Punt12–0
NEQ3 5:231068Field goal12–3
CLEQ3 1:37180Touchdown19–3
NEQ3 1:25472Touchdown19–11
CLEQ3 0:06611Punt19–11
NEQ4 11:311160Field goal19–14
CLEQ4 5:43890Touchdown26–14
NEQ4 2:391082Touchdown26–21
CLEQ4 1:0100Touchdown26–21
NEQ4 1:00311Touchdown26–27
CLEQ4 0:31440Missed field goal26–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell29/4439130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Gordon13434.00
Willis McGahee14332.40
Jason Campbell22713.50
Chris Ogbonnaya591.80
Fozzy Whittaker351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon7101511
Jordan Cameron991211
Gary Barnidge22491
Chris Ogbonnaya33250
Fozzy Whittaker36180
Greg Little24140
Davone Bess14100
MarQueis Gray1230
Willis McGahee1100
Brian Tyms0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/5241821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount8425.30
Stevan Ridley8354.40
Shane Vereen393.01
Tom Brady210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shane Vereen12171530
Julian Edelman69641
Josh Boyce35490
Danny Amendola48361
LeGarrette Blount12320
Rob Gronkowski25320
Matthew Mulligan11150
Austin Collie1140
Stevan Ridley1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.27