1999 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Hobert

10·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NO -1

Total

37

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.102
  • 36.9%Success rate38.6%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.228
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 34.1%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.03
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
CHIQ100Punt0–0
CHIQ1 15:00928Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:035-11Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:421033Turnover0–0
NOQ1 3:2038Punt0–0
CHIQ1 1:5632Punt0–0
NOQ1 1:01221—0–0
NOQ200Punt0–0
NOQ2 15:00728Punt0–0
CHIQ2 11:35411Punt0–0
NOQ2 9:571352Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 4:32522Punt7–0
NOQ2 1:53413Punt7–0
CHIQ2 0:3938Punt7–0
NOQ2 0:0300End of half7–0
NOQ3 15:003-7Punt7–0
CHIQ3 13:251140Turnover7–0
NOQ3 8:25651Punt7–0
CHIQ3 5:5310Turnover7–0
NOQ3 5:41427Field goal10–0
CHIQ3 3:231-9Turnover10–0
NOQ3 3:1059Turnover10–0
CHIQ3 1:0936Turnover10–0
NOQ3 0:2655Turnover on downs10–0
CHIQ4 14:081137Missed field goal10–0
NOQ4 9:21857Turnover on downs10–0
CHIQ4 4:351079Touchdown10–7
NOQ4 1:48417Punt10–7
CHIQ4 1:08667Touchdown10–14
NOQ4 0:0710End of half10–14

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Tolliver7/1510200
Billy Joe Hobert8/137600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams21844.00
Billy Joe Tolliver23216.00
Lamar Smith10191.90
Billy Joe Hobert122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison48550
Keith Poole26450
Lamar Smith12160
Andre Hastings22150
Cameron Cleeland13130
Scott Slutzker11120
Ricky Williams11100
Brett Bech0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews25/3922422
Cade McNown0/4000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis23833.60
Shane Matthews3237.70
James Allen144.00
Cade McNown122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Conway8121032
Ryan Wetnight67470
Bobby Engram47330
Edgar Bennett33270
Marcus Robinson1550
Macey Brooks1440
Alonzo Mayes1230
Curtis Enis1320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.18
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.59