Closing spread
NO -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.102
- 36.9%Success rate38.6%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.228
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 34.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.12Points / drive1.03
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 7/15 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 8/13 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Scott Slutzker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brett Bech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 25/39 | 224 | 2 | 2 |
| Cade McNown | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Conway | 8 | 12 | 103 | 2 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.59