2013 · Week 5

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

26·18

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.077
  • 47.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.072
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +5.36CPOE+4.85
  • 45.1%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.95
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00316Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:01939Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 7:381-3Turnover3–0
NOQ1 7:2735Field goal6–0
CHIQ1 6:00615Punt6–0
NOQ1 2:44522Punt6–0
CHIQ2 14:5335Punt6–0
NOQ2 12:5838Punt6–0
CHIQ2 11:00518Punt6–0
NOQ2 9:19672Touchdown13–0
CHIQ2 5:57780Touchdown13–7
NOQ2 2:41876Touchdown20–7
CHIQ2 0:23350End of half20–7
NOQ3 15:001260Field goal23–7
CHIQ3 8:03976Field goal23–10
NOQ3 4:56623Punt23–10
CHIQ3 0:411374Turnover on downs23–10
NOQ4 8:401134Field goal26–10
CHIQ4 3:01482Touchdown26–18
NOQ4 2:1138Punt26–18
CHIQ4 0:21121End of half26–18

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/3528820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas19361.90
Darren Sproles3103.30
Khiry Robinson393.00
Drew Brees1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham10111350
Pierre Thomas99552
Nick Toon11350
Darren Sproles33310
Marques Colston22150
Benjamin Watson0100
Robert Meachem0100
Kenny Stills0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler24/3335820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12554.60
Jay Cutler4276.80
Michael Bush2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery10132181
Martellus Bennett55560
Matt Forte46400
Brandon Marshall45301
Earl Bennett13140
Dante Rosario0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.87