Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.077
- 47.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- +5.36CPOE+4.85
- 45.1%Third-down rate42.7%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.21Points / drive1.95
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/35 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 19 | 36 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 10 | 11 | 135 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 9 | 55 | 2 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 24/33 | 358 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 10 | 13 | 218 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.87