2017 · Week 8

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

12·20

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSaints
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.092
  • 38.5%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.130EPA / rush+0.026
  • 7.7%Explosive rate12.4%
  • -3.10CPOE+4.74
  • 34.8%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.37
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NO
NOQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:08619Punt0–7
NOQ1 7:59510Punt0–7
CHIQ1 5:17967Field goal3–7
NOQ2 14:52414Punt3–7
CHIQ2 12:39822Punt3–7
NOQ2 8:11880Touchdown3–14
CHIQ2 3:411045Missed field goal3–14
NOQ2 0:2210End of half3–14
CHIQ3 15:003-1Punt3–14
NOQ3 13:30636Punt3–14
CHIQ3 9:13772Field goal6–14
NOQ3 5:42729Punt6–14
CHIQ3 2:1630Punt6–14
NOQ3 0:20636Field goal6–17
CHIQ4 12:5434Punt6–17
NOQ4 11:54749Turnover6–17
CHIQ4 7:321170Touchdown12–17
NOQ4 3:58454Turnover12–17
CHIQ4 2:1249Turnover on downs12–17
NOQ4 1:5137Field goal12–20
CHIQ4 1:3520Turnover12–20
NOQ4 1:1100End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky14/3216401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard231024.40
Mitchell Trubisky35317.70
Tarik Cohen420.51
Benny Cunningham100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre McBride35920
Kendall Wright28230
Jordan Howard35190
Dion Sims35150
Daniel Brown1190
Tarik Cohen1360
Zach Miller0200
Benny Cunningham1100
Tanner Gentry0100
Adam Shaheen0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/2829900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram18754.21
Alvin Kamara8283.51
Drew Brees4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas78770
Ted Ginn24680
Brandon Coleman11540
Alvin Kamara33480
Josh Hill34290
Mark Ingram66240
Coby Fleener11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.06