Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.092
- 38.5%Success rate45.3%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.130EPA / rush+0.026
- 7.7%Explosive rate12.4%
- -3.10CPOE+4.74
- 34.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.22Points / drive2.37
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 14/32 | 164 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 53 | 17.7 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre McBride | 3 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Gentry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/28 | 299 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 54 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06