2019 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

36·25

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

37

Model margin

+1.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.079
  • 47.0%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.172EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.188
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +3.92CPOE-1.71
  • 43.9%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.50
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0037Safety2–0
NOQ1 13:2939Punt2–0
CHIQ1 11:19516Punt2–0
NOQ1 8:37531Punt2–0
CHIQ1 5:5623Turnover2–0
NOQ1 5:23524Touchdown9–6
CHIQ1 3:1400Touchdown9–7
NOQ1 2:5937Punt9–7
CHIQ1 1:211039Field goal9–10
NOQ2 11:331152Field goal12–10
CHIQ2 6:3138Punt12–10
NOQ2 5:51643Missed field goal12–10
CHIQ2 2:1733Punt12–10
NOQ2 1:3635Punt12–10
CHIQ2 1:1435Punt12–10
NOQ2 0:1500End of half12–10
NOQ3 15:00675Touchdown19–10
CHIQ3 12:0014Turnover19–10
NOQ3 11:473-5Missed field goal19–10
CHIQ3 10:173-2Punt19–10
NOQ3 8:281176Touchdown26–10
CHIQ3 2:5532Punt26–10
NOQ3 1:44948Field goal29–10
CHIQ4 12:45835Turnover on downs29–10
NOQ4 9:18755Touchdown36–10
CHIQ4 4:331075Touchdown36–18
NOQ4 2:3100Touchdown36–18
CHIQ4 2:28957Touchdown36–25
NOQ4 0:4826End of half36–25

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater23/3828120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray271194.42
Taysom Hill22110.50
Teddy Bridgewater471.80
Zach Zenner111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas9111310
Ted Ginn25480
Josh Hill33431
Latavius Murray56310
Zach Zenner1260
Dwayne Washington1160
Taysom Hill1241
Austin Carr0200
Dan Arnold0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky34/5425120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen3103.30
David Montgomery263.00
Cordarrelle Patterson122.00
Anthony Miller1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson1016871
Anthony Miller59640
Adam Shaheen22240
Cordarrelle Patterson23210
Tarik Cohen912190
David Montgomery22130
Trey Burton24110
Taylor Gabriel1260
Javon Wims1161

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.97
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.36