Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
37
Model margin
+1.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.079
- 47.0%Success rate41.1%
- +0.172EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.188
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.0%
- +3.92CPOE-1.71
- 43.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.45Points / drive1.50
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/38 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 27 | 119 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 11 | 131 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Austin Carr | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 34/54 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 16 | 87 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 9 | 12 | 19 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.97
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.36