2025 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

14·26

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.4%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.155EPA / rush+0.007
  • 5.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.72CPOE-3.48
  • 39.4%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.32
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:3525Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 12:55520Field goal0–3
NOQ1 9:3434Punt0–3
CHIQ1 7:58519Turnover0–3
NOQ1 6:08618Missed field goal0–3
CHIQ1 2:55835Field goal0–6
NOQ2 14:068-12Turnover0–6
CHIQ2 11:06430Touchdown0–13
NOQ2 9:053-11Punt0–13
CHIQ2 7:26860Touchdown0–20
NOQ2 2:5159Turnover on downs0–20
CHIQ2 1:3836Punt0–20
NOQ2 1:08591Touchdown7–20
CHIQ2 0:22210End of half7–20
NOQ3 15:001075Touchdown14–20
CHIQ3 9:40771Field goal14–23
NOQ3 4:07313Turnover14–23
CHIQ3 2:35720Punt14–23
NOQ4 13:20511Punt14–23
CHIQ4 10:40756Field goal14–26
NOQ4 6:22650Turnover14–26
CHIQ4 4:20750End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler20/3223323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11282.50
Spencer Rattler2126.00
Kendre Miller177.00
Devin Neal111.00
Taysom Hill2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave57982
Juwan Johnson57790
Rashid Shaheed49400
Taysom Hill22120
Brandin Cooks1130
Alvin Kamara3310
Jack Stoll0100
Mason Tipton0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams15/2617201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift191246.51
Kyle Monangai13816.21
Roschon Johnson11111.00
DJ Moore199.00
Olamide Zaccheaus100.00
Luther Burden III1-1-1.00
Caleb Williams4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore35430
Rome Odunze26310
Colston Loveland34240
Luther Burden III12220
Cole Kmet11160
D'Andre Swift11140
Kyle Monangai23130
Olamide Zaccheaus2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.79
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.90