Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.076
- 42.4%Success rate45.7%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.155EPA / rush+0.007
- 5.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.72CPOE-3.48
- 39.4%Third-down rate42.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.53Points / drive2.32
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 20/32 | 233 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 7 | 98 | 2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 15/26 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.90