2023 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Tyson Bagent

17·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -9

Total

42

Model margin

+3.7est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSaints
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.015
  • 41.6%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.01CPOE+1.94
  • 41.7%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.82
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NO
CHIQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 11:21419Punt7–0
CHIQ1 9:28737Turnover7–0
NOQ1 5:481045Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 0:44785Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 12:521175Touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 6:051253Missed field goal14–14
NOQ2 0:28531End of half14–14
NOQ3 15:0037Punt14–14
CHIQ3 13:44216Turnover14–14
NOQ3 12:5932Field goal14–17
CHIQ3 11:431482Field goal17–17
NOQ3 3:27536Punt17–17
CHIQ3 1:0536Punt17–17
NOQ4 13:59547Touchdown17–24
CHIQ4 11:0520Turnover17–24
NOQ4 10:58720Turnover on downs17–24
CHIQ4 7:29612Turnover17–24
NOQ4 5:0831Punt17–24
CHIQ4 3:4136Punt17–24
NOQ4 2:4537Missed field goal17–24
CHIQ4 2:263-4Turnover17–24
NOQ4 2:05312End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyson Bagent18/3022023

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman20834.20
Tyson Bagent8708.80
Roschon Johnson263.00
Darrynton Evans122.00
Tyler Scott1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney56820
Cole Kmet68552
DJ Moore35440
Darrynton Evans22190
Robert Tonyan11110
Roschon Johnson1190
Velus Jones Jr.0100
Tyler Scott0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr25/3421120
Taysom Hill1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill11524.70
Alvin Kamara9262.90
Jamaal Williams362.00
Derek Carr331.00
Kendre Miller100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave68461
Alvin Kamara45440
Kendre Miller11310
Juwan Johnson55291
Foster Moreau11230
Rashid Shaheed33220
Taysom Hill45131
Jamaal Williams2360
Michael Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.68