Closing spread
NO -9
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.015
- 41.6%Success rate42.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.01CPOE+1.94
- 41.7%Third-down rate39.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.72Points / drive1.82
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 18/30 | 220 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 6 | 8 | 55 | 2 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 25/34 | 211 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68