2020 · Week 8

Final / OT

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

26·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

41

Model margin

-5.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • +0.096EPA / play-0.016
  • 47.7%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.014
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.073
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.58CPOE+1.28
  • 46.0%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.72Points / drive1.97
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
NOQ1 15:001155Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 8:131349Field goal3–3
NOQ1 1:13879Missed field goal3–3
CHIQ2 10:38480Touchdown3–10
NOQ2 8:1035Punt3–10
CHIQ2 7:043-4Punt3–10
NOQ2 6:0339Punt3–10
CHIQ2 3:52650Field goal3–13
NOQ2 1:391055Touchdown10–13
CHIQ2 0:0300End of half10–13
CHIQ3 15:00510Punt10–13
NOQ3 10:5137Field goal13–13
CHIQ3 9:1925Turnover13–13
NOQ3 8:34719Field goal16–13
CHIQ3 5:0438Punt16–13
NOQ3 2:5747Turnover on downs16–13
CHIQ3 1:27526Turnover on downs16–13
NOQ4 14:11764Touchdown23–13
CHIQ4 9:571262Touchdown23–20
NOQ4 3:3233Punt23–20
CHIQ4 1:511135Field goal23–23
NOQ4 0:1300End of half23–23
NOOT740Punt23–23
CHIOT68Punt23–23
NOOT752Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4128020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara12675.60
Taysom Hill5357.00
Latavius Murray8172.10
Drew Brees341.30
Deonte Harty1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara913960
Jared Cook57511
Tre'Quan Smith57430
Taysom Hill22301
Deonte Harty33190
Latavius Murray33140
Austin Carr11100
Josh Hill1170
Tommylee Lewis1150
Juwan Johnson1350

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles28/4127221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery21894.20
Cordarrelle Patterson144.00
Mitchell Trubisky133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson67871
Anthony Miller811730
Darnell Mooney56691
David Montgomery25160
Jimmy Graham27130
Javon Wims1190
Ryan Nall1120
Cole Kmet1120
Cordarrelle Patterson2210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.5%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.54
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-5.54