Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
-5.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play-0.016
- 47.7%Success rate44.0%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.073
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.58CPOE+1.28
- 46.0%Third-down rate34.8%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.72Points / drive1.97
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/41 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 13 | 96 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 28/41 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 7 | 87 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 8 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.54
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.54