2014 · Week 15

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

31·15

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBears
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.055
  • 47.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +3.60CPOE-0.14
  • 48.2%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.62
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
NOQ1 13:58220Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 13:18519Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:41541Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 8:2176Punt0–0
NOQ1 3:55978Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 14:5230Punt7–0
NOQ2 14:18310Punt7–0
CHIQ2 12:0849Turnover on downs7–0
NOQ2 10:19516Punt7–0
CHIQ2 6:44524Punt7–0
NOQ2 4:021180Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 0:32332Turnover14–0
NOQ3 15:001280Touchdown21–0
CHIQ3 8:3533Punt21–0
NOQ3 6:2737Punt21–0
CHIQ3 4:51419Turnover21–0
NOQ3 3:21749Field goal24–0
CHIQ3 0:16756Touchdown24–8
NOQ4 12:47532Punt24–8
CHIQ4 9:12735Punt24–8
NOQ4 5:2638Punt24–8
CHIQ4 4:2452Turnover on downs24–8
NOQ4 2:47323Touchdown31–8
CHIQ4 1:47471Touchdown31–15
NOQ4 0:3000End of half31–15

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/3637530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram17593.51
Pierre Thomas2115.50
Khiry Robinson3103.30
Drew Brees320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham57870
Pierre Thomas55830
Kenny Stills57670
Marques Colston57651
Nick Toon44430
Josh Hill22152
Khiry Robinson22100
Benjamin Watson1150
Robert Meachem0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3119423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte16784.90
Josh Morgan12121.00
Jay Cutler12020.00
Ka'Deem Carey144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery49781
Ka'Deem Carey33390
Martellus Bennett46360
Matt Forte25210
Marquess Wilson35161
Dante Rosario1240
Josh Morgan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.47