Closing spread
NO -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.055
- 47.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.1%
- +3.60CPOE-0.14
- 48.2%Third-down rate38.4%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.11Points / drive1.62
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/36 | 375 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Nick Toon | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 15 | 2 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/31 | 194 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 3 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.47