2020 · WC

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

9·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -11

Total

48

Model margin

+5.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSaints
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.096
  • 44.0%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.039
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.28CPOE+2.58
  • 34.8%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.72
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO
2011 · W2CHI @ NO13–30NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NO
NOQ1 15:00937Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:4235Punt0–0
NOQ1 9:26850Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 5:09748Turnover on downs0–7
NOQ1 2:05741Missed field goal0–7
CHIQ2 14:0732Punt0–7
NOQ2 13:0338Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 11:30526Field goal3–7
NOQ2 8:0645Punt3–7
CHIQ2 6:15414Punt3–7
NOQ2 4:11633Punt3–7
CHIQ2 1:4938Punt3–7
CHIQ3 15:00731Punt3–7
NOQ3 11:371285Touchdown3–14
CHIQ3 4:0835Punt3–14
NOQ3 2:411765Touchdown3–21
CHIQ4 8:5031Punt3–21
NOQ4 7:381161Turnover on downs3–21
CHIQ4 2:191199Touchdown9–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky19/2919910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery12312.60
Mitchell Trubisky3103.30
DeAndre Carter133.00
Cordarrelle Patterson122.00
Anthony Miller122.00
Ryan Nall100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson67550
Riley Ridley22360
Javon Wims14280
Jimmy Graham22251
Anthony Miller23220
DeAndre Carter34170
Cole Kmet34160
David Montgomery0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3926520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara23994.31
Taysom Hill4153.80
Latavius Murray492.30
Drew Brees320.70
Deonte Harty1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Harty77830
Michael Thomas57731
Jared Cook47400
Alvin Kamara22170
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11140
Latavius Murray22111
Taysom Hill2250
Adam Trautman1340
Emmanuel Sanders2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.32