Closing spread
NO -11
Total
48
Model margin
+5.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.096
- 44.0%Success rate47.7%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.039
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.28CPOE+2.58
- 34.8%Third-down rate46.0%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 1.97Points / drive2.72
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 19/29 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Riley Ridley | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/39 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 7 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32